Biden Versus the World: Can He Tame Russia, China, and the Debt Ceiling?
May 14-21: Biden working Debt Ceiling + G7 talks; Turkey's Presidential Runoff; Various states restricting abortion and gender-affirming care.
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Here’s what we’ve got in store:
Get the facts about the top stories of the week:
The Divide: What topics are MSNBC and Fox News focused on this past week?
The top stories of the week
The US Debt Ceiling Talks
The tension and attention around the debt ceiling deal are rising quickly as we near the June 1st deadline.
Here’s what’s happened in the past week: Negotiations over the US debt limit are ongoing, with both parties hopeful of reaching a deal before the default date, but talks have stalled until President Biden returns from the G7 summit.
Why have there been delays in the talks? Beyond the usual politics, Biden is navigating multiple conversations and decisions across G7 (How do we slow down Russia?), the Quad Summit (How do we slow down China?), and debt-ceiling talks at home (How do we not default and cause a global economic calamity?).
How do the most recent negotiations change the probability of default?
If we compare the debt ceiling hike prediction market from this week to last week, there’s an increased chance that the hike becomes law before June 1st.
Here’s this week’s predictions:
Compare this to last week:
Zelensky's plea at G7
Here’s what happened last week: The G7 summit in Japan is underway, with Ukraine's President Zelensky making a plea for more aid and discussing the ongoing conflict with Russia, while Biden's absence from the Quad summit has rattled US allies in the Pacific (it ended up happening a few days later), and the secretive Bilderberg meeting features elites from various countries.
What is Zelensky's plea for aid about?
Zelensky's plea for aid is about requesting more powerful weapons from the G7 nations, particularly the US, to protect Ukraine from Russia's aerial onslaught and to bolster their counteroffensive. He wants reassurance about their support for the war and to make sure that there is no fatigue. Zelensky met with Biden, and the White House officials allowed allied nations to send F-16s to Ukraine, and the US would train Ukrainian pilots. The Ukrainian leader welcomed additional pledges of military support for that effort, including $3 billion in military aid from Germany.
Sources: 1. New York Times, 2. Washington Post, 3. CNN, 4. BBC
What are the recent developments in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
G7 nations issued a joint communique condemning Russia's war against Ukraine and reaffirming their support for Ukraine.
G7 nations announced a new wave of global sanctions on Moscow and plans to enhance the effectiveness of existing financial penalties meant to constrain President Vladimir Putin’s war effort.
US President Joe Biden dropped objections to providing Ukrainians F16 fighter jets and would train Ukrainian pilots in the United States, a major advance in US military support for the country.
Ukraine has consistently called for Western fighter jets to bolster its defenses, and officials believe the jets could become essential to the country’s long-term security.
There is a growing urgency to Zelensky’s appeals for more advanced weapons and tighter sanctions on Moscow as Russia’s aerial assaults pound Ukrainian cities and Kyiv prepares for a counter-offensive.
Sources: 1. CNN, 2. New York Post, 3. Washington Times
What is the significance of the Quad Summit?
Full statement here
Strategic Balance: The Quad is seen as an important strategic counterbalance in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in response to China's increasing influence and military expansion in the region. Its commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific aims to ensure the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity are upheld.
Climate Change and Sustainability: As four of the world's major economies, the Quad's united commitment to addressing climate change and promoting sustainable development represents significant collective action towards global environmental goals.
Health Security: The Quad's collective response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the formation of the Quad Health Security Partnership demonstrate its ability to respond quickly and effectively to global health crises. This collaboration is likely to enhance the region's preparedness for future health emergencies.
Infrastructure and Connectivity: The Quad's commitment to infrastructure development and digital connectivity can significantly contribute to economic growth and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
Promotion of Democratic Principles: The Quad, comprised of four leading democracies, sends a strong message about the importance of democratic values, transparency, and international law in maintaining regional peace and stability.
Biden also spent time reassuring the quad partnership that the US would not default as debt ceiling talks have been in a standoff.
Turkey's Presidential Election Runoff
Here’s what happened: Turkey's President Erdogan failed to secure a majority in the presidential election, leading to a run-off against the opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in what is being seen as the biggest challenge to his two decades in power.
What is at stake in this election?
The elections in Turkey will set the future course for the country, which is one of the world's 20 largest economies and a NATO ally of the United States. The outcome could echo far beyond Turkey's borders, and if Erdogan loses power via elections, it could give people hope that the autocratic surge can be reversed. The election poses the biggest challenge yet to Turkey's strongman leader, who faces economic headwinds and criticism that the impact of the devastating February 6 earthquake was made worse by lax building controls and a shambolic rescue effort.
Sources: 1. New York Times2. New York Times 3. CNN 4. CNN
What are the relations between Turkey and the US like?
The relations between Turkey and the US have become fraught, and US officials are watching the Turkish presidential election closely. Turkey is a NATO ally of the United States, and the outcome of the election could echo far beyond Turkey’s borders.
Sources: 1. New York Times, 2. New York Times, 3. CNN
Transgender and Abortion Laws
Here’s what happened: Various US states are passing bills restricting abortion and gender-affirming care for minors, while some are defunding diversity programs at public colleges, and there are also reports of individuals losing their jobs or missing graduation due to issues related to gender identity.
What kind of bills are US states passing to restrict gender-affirming care for minors?
At least 17 US states have enacted laws restricting or banning transgender procedures, hormones and therapies for minors, and proposals are pending before the governors of Texas and Missouri. A Republican-backed bill has been proposed to prohibit performing gender transition measures on minors, and violators would face punishment. Medical groups and advocates claim such restrictions are further marginalizing transgender youth and threatening their health. Physicians have repeatedly objected to legislation impeding access to gender-affirming care, and six health-care associations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, said they are “strongly opposed to any legislation or regulation that would interfere with the provision of evidence-based patient care for any patient.”
Sources: 1. Washington Post 2. New York Post3. The Blaze
What is the status of abortion laws in various US states?
As of May 21, 2023, 26 states have no gestational limits or limits on abortions after viability, while at least 17 states have enacted laws restricting or banning transgender procedures, hormones, and therapies for minors. Nebraska currently bans abortion around 20 weeks and has passed a 12-week abortion ban, as well as a ban on gender-affirming care for minors. The erosion of transgender rights has been particularly alarming in Nebraska, where a transgender man was raped and killed in 1993. The ACLU of Nebraska is exploring options to address the harm of this extreme legislation.
Sources: 1. Fox News, 2. Washington Times, 3. Wall Street Journal, 4. Washington Post
The Divide
It's difficult to understand how the media you consume is shaping your perspective. We’re all swimming in our own, personalized filter bubbles, and often only see information that confirms our existing beliefs and opinions.
This phenomenon is exaggerated by the streetlight effect. Different news outlets shine a light on different aspects of reality, and it's easy to get caught up in one perspective without seeing the full picture. This can lead to a distorted understanding of events and issues.
60% of Republicans turn to Fox News for political news and 53% of Democrats turn to CNN1. This means that a large portion of the country is being pushed two different versions of the world. Take a look at a bird’s eye view of partisan media:
That’s it for this week. To see a full rundown of the biggest stories of the week, along with a detailed analysis of how they are being covered by the various tribal factions, check out useclarity.com. And if you’re curious, here’s how it works.
https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2020/01/24/americans-are-divided-by-party-in-the-sources-they-turn-to-for-political-news/
FYI, The "What is the status of abortion laws in various US states?" section oddly jumps between abortion and transgender laws/data at random, sort of merging with the previous section.