tectonic shifts in immigration, war, and the economy
May 7 - May 14: the US-Mexico Border; Ukraine Russia Conflict; Debt Ceiling Negotations
Happy Mother’s Day! Clarity cuts through the noise to give you a clear view of the world. Our anti-filter approach brings together polarized and fragmented landscapes, so you can see the bigger picture without the confusion. We aggregate news and rankings from the most popular outlets to answer all your questions, completely powered by a transparent data-driven algorithm.
Here’s what we’ve got in store:
The Divide: What topics are MSNBC and Fox News focused on this past week?
Get the facts about the top stories of the week:
The Divide
To give you a top-down view of what the left and right-leaning media care about (and perhaps it’s most ardent viewers), we’ll compare Fox News and MSNBC based on the topics with the most front-page attention over the past week. If you’re seeing a lot of stories in your personal feeds that are among the most skewed topics below, you’re likely being fed a narrative and the story may not hold its weight over the long term.
Get the facts about the top stories of the week
US-Mexico Border Migrant Crisis
TLDR: The end of the pandemic-era border policy has led to a surge in migration to the US, causing uncertainty and clashes between officials, while Texas prepares for the rule change and federal agents standby for potential riots.
Interestingly, this is the top story of the week, based on aggregate front-page attention normalized across the left, center, and right. Immigration is an increasingly hot-button topic, ranking 2nd for Republicans and 3rd for Independents, according to this recent NPR/PBS poll.
How does border immigration actually work in practice? The New York Times did a fantastic expose on the flow of how crossings, apprehensions, and expulsions work. Here’s one example.
Let’s go into the facts - most of these questions are answered by AI reading through a carefully curated dataset of news articles. Read about the approach here:
What is Title 42 and why was it implemented?
Title 42 is a federal health measure enforced by the US Border Patrol that allows the agency to kick certain migrants out of the US and return them to Mexico, including asylum seekers who have the legal right to make an asylum claim in America. President Donald Trump invoked the law in 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, asking the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to issue the policy. The Trump administration made the case that keeping migrants out of the country would slow down the spread of infections and maintain the safety of federal agents encountering migrants.
Sources: 1. New York Post, 2. New York Post, 3. NBC News, 4. New York Post
What is the current state of the US-Mexico border?
The pandemic-era border restriction known as Title 42 has expired, and officials have been warning that the change in policy could attract a surge of migrants and worsen an already challenging humanitarian crisis at the southern border, where communities in recent days have seen makeshift encampments proliferate as border crossings climb. The policy known as Title 42 is one of the public health measures that came into effect during the Trump administration three years ago that was posited as necessary to protect the nation against the coronavirus. The policy extended into the Biden administration and to date has resulted in more than 2.8 million expulsions since March 2020, including those who attempted to cross more than once.
Sources: 1. Washington Examiner, 2. CNN, 3. New York Times
Why are migrants risking such a perilous journey and what is their end goal?
The migrants are crossing the US-Mexico border illegally and waiting in roughshod encampments, hoping to enter the United States. They are complaining that no international agencies are coming to their aid. The end goal of the migrants is to enter the United States and start a new life. The end of the Title 42 policy, which served as a procedural barrier against illegal immigration since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, has led to a surge in migration influx, with some 80,000 South American migrants amassed in Guatemala and planning to head for the US-Mexico border. The Biden administration is sending 1,500 troops to the border for the next 90 days to handle the situation.
Sources: 1. Washington Post, 2. New York Post, 3. Washington Examiner, 4. Washington Times
Conflict between Ukraine and Russia
TLDR: The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues, with Ukraine making gains in Bakhmut, Russian military aircraft being downed, and the US suspecting Russia of targeting their Patriot system with a hypersonic missile, while also dealing with religious tensions and Putin's scaled-back Victory Day celebrations.
What is the current status of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
The front lines have mostly frozen, except for fierce fighting in Bakhmut, where Ukrainian soldiers are holding on in the western edges of the city amid a ruthless Russian attack. Beyond Bakhmut, Ukraine’s focus has been on its upcoming second counteroffensive, an even more ambitious assault aimed at pushing Russia out of the disputed Donbas region and perhaps even out of Crimea, a portion of Ukraine that Moscow and its proxy forces have held since 2014. Russian forces have fortified their defenses, primarily by moving around a lot of dirt. The war has played out over the past six months with similarities to World War I, particularly in how the war has played out over the past six months. The cause of the explosions is unknown, but the optics of a symbolic attack against the Kremlin gave it an opportunity to rally support for Putin from Russians as critics continue to speak out against Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
Sources: 1. Washington Times, 2. CNN, 3. Reuters
Note: The Reuter’s article is fantastic in detailing Russia’s fortifications with trenches over time.
What is the significance of Ukraine's recent gains in Bakhmut?
Ukraine has recently made gains against Russian forces in the eastern city of Bakhmut, which has been contested by both sides for months.
The Ukrainian operation near Bakhmut hit Russian Army troops as they were rotating into position and was an opportunistic strike on a weak link in the Russian front.
Ukrainian commanders said several units had carried out the attack, including the Azov soldiers in the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, a special forces unit; the Adam Tactical Group; and the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, a group that includes civilian volunteers.
The recent gains by Ukraine have exposed rifts in Russian forces and presented them with a difficult strategic decision about reinforcing the city, setting off a new round of recriminations between Russian commanders.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged caution on the timing of a counteroffensive to recapture territory it has lost, saying the military needs more time before it can launch a much-anticipated major counteroffensive.
Sources: 1. New York Times, 2. New York Times, 3. Wall Street Journal
What is the religious tension in Ukraine and how is it affecting the conflict?
There is tension between Ukraine and Russia over the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which is linked to Moscow. The dispute is not over doctrinal differences but national loyalty, with Ukraine cracking down on the UOC following Russia's invasion. More than 60 criminal cases have been opened against its clergy, many of them suspected of collaboration and spreading pro-Russian propaganda. Seven have been convicted by the courts, and a legal battle is raging to evict the church from its historic monastery headquarters in Kyiv, one of the holiest sites in the Orthodox Church. The UOC denies being allied to Moscow and says it has seen no evidence of wrongdoing by its clergy. Despite that, polls show Ukrainians turning their back on the church in droves. The issue has caused a deep rift in rural communities, with some residents wanting to shun the Moscow-linked church, while others are concerned about arguing amongst themselves while battles rage in the east. The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of "illegally attacking" the UOC and has used it as one justification for what it calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine: defending Russian-speakers and Russian culture from persecution.
Sources: 1. Reuters, 2. CNN
US Debt Ceiling Negotiations
TLDR: The US Congress and White House are in tough negotiations over the debt limit, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning of a potential cash shortage in early June if Congress does not act, and both parties holding hardened positions on the issue.
Things are largely in the same place since Clarity’s last post on the debt ceiling - no agreement has been made and we are ever closer to the deadline of June 1st.
Here are some of the latest updates in the negotiations:
What are the possible budget cuts that the White House and Congress are considering?
The Republicans are insisting on spending cuts as part of the negotiations to raise the US government's debt ceiling, while Democrats have pushed for an unconditional lifting of the debt ceiling. The White House and Congress are considering potential compromises, including a proposal by the Problem Solvers Caucus to increase the debt ceiling until the end of the year to allow the budget and appropriations process to play out, while creating a special commission to study and recommend long-term spending cuts. Some Republicans are unwilling to decouple the debt ceiling from the fight over spending cuts, while some Democrats have tried to devise their own solutions, such as a bill that would raise the debt ceiling without immediate spending cuts. The fact that spending cuts and caps are under discussion could be a sign of progress in talks. However, there is still a risk of a historic, economically destabilizing default on government debt, which the Treasury Department has warned could come as soon as June 1.
Sources: 1. Reuters, 2. Washington Post, 3. Reuters
What is the role of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the debt ceiling negotiations?
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is involved in the ongoing negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling. As the government has already hit the debt ceiling, there is a need to prioritize payments to avoid defaulting on the country's loans. However, Yellen has stated that there has been no plan for prioritizing payments presented to President Joe Biden. Despite this, she has warned that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will have to default on some obligations, which could impair the country's credit rating. Yellen has emphasized that there are no good options other than congressional action and has not ruled out prioritizing payments if negotiations fail.
Sources: 1. Washington Examiner, 2. Washington Examiner, 3. Washington Post
How much should we worry about this? Let’s ask the market:
Here is Kalshi’s prediction market on the Debt Ceiling Hike - there is apparently market consensus that the ceiling hike won’t happen by the deadline.
The market things that the hike will become law eventually, by July 1st.
That’s it for this week. To see a full rundown of the biggest stories of the week, along with a detailed analysis of how they are being covered by the various tribal factions, check out useclarity.com. And if you’re curious, here’s how it works.