Fractured narratives & scarce information

Feb 23 to Mar 2: ↑ Lab leak theory, ↑ China US tensions, ↓ Student loan forgiveness

Covid Lab Leak Theory

After Russia-Ukraine and extreme weather across the US, the Covid lab leak theory ranked 3rd domestically across the most popular news outlets. Here are some key headlines from across the spectrum:

• MSNBC: Chris Hayes: Covid origin theory has entered the GOP culture war

• Washington Post: ‘Lab leak’ report energizes Republicans’ covid probes

• CNN: Covid 'lab leak theory': What we've learned

• Reuters: China scoffs at FBI claim that Wuhan lab leak likely caused COVID pandemic

• WSJ: FBI Director Says Covid Pandemic Likely Caused by Chinese Lab Leak

• Washington Times: Vaccines don’t work, masks don’t work: Everything government told us about COVID-19 was wrong

• Washington Examiner: Senate passes bill demanding pandemic origin info be made public

• Fox News: Media ‘fact checkers’ were eager to debunk COVID lab leak theory, had to issue corrections

In broad strokes, left leaning outlets tend to use quotes around “lab leak theory” and highlight how the recent report has become political ammo for the right. In tandem, the right focuses on media censorship and institutional follies. Almost no stories take an investigative or analytical viewpoint to assess the real likelihood of this theory now, as we have new information. This begs the question - what is there to gain, especially of left-leaning outlets to investigate this claim?

If we were betting folks, would we think that the top intelligence agencies of the US come to a consensus and favor the lab-leak theory? There happens to be a prediction market for this very question - from recent news the community prediction rose from 40% to 60%.

China And Ukraine

China is facing increasing tensions with US over its involvement in Ukraine and Taiwan. Due to propaganda from likely our government, our media, the Chinese government, along with the fog of war, it’s getting really murky here. For example, these are three stories published within 24 hours of each other from MSNBC, NBC, and WaPo (tagged by Clarity AI).

• WaPo: After warnings, no evidence China is supplying arms to Russia, U.S. officials say

• MSNBC: China considers sending Russia artillery and ammunition

  NBC News

• NBC: China accuses U.S. of 'disinformation' over claims it's considering sending Russia artillery and ammo

Is this an indication that we’re in the midst of an information war?

Here are broad-strokes perspectives from each side, based on articles from the past week:

Left

• China is taking diplomatic approach to conflict in Ukraine [1, 2]

Center

• U.S. is seeking allies' backing for possible China sanctions over Ukraine war

Right

• U.S. should take a more aggressive stance against China [1, 2, 3]

Student Loan Forgiveness

The Supreme Court signals skepticism of Biden's student loan forgiveness plan, which led to a slew of slanted stories across the left and right - research more through Clarity here. A couple of narratives are at play here: conservative justices are responsible for this injunction and renewed skepticism, allowing the handouts could set a dangerous precedent for presidential authority, SCOTUS case could curb presidential power.

Narratives aside, Kalshi has a prediction market on whether SCOTUS will continue to block the student debt relief program. Interestingly, during the hearing itself, the consensus probability rose to nearly 100% before dropping to 81% - it currently sits at 85%. This may be the best mechanism we have as civilians to understand what will actually happen to the program.

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A quick reminder - I spent the past the last few months working with Jeremy to build Clarity - an Open AI powered news reader to helps measure media bias and pop your filter bubble. It updates every day and uses a transparent, intuitive algorithm for you to quickly and efficiently get the news across the spectrum.

The divide

60% of Republicans turn to Fox News for political news and 53% of Democrats turn to CNN. This means that a large portion of the country is being pushed two different versions of the world. Here’s what a large portion of voters, largely older, are consuming in terms of news.

That’s it for this week. To see a full rundown of the biggest stories of the week, along with detailed analysis of how they are being covered by the various tribal factions, check out useclarity.com. And if you’re curious, here’s how it works.

Until next time!